Chris Connery leads the 3D printing effort for CONTEXT with over a quarter-of-a-century of experience in brand management, marketing and industry analysis of various aspects of the IT market. His talk at the 2016 TCT Show received so many plaudits that we’ve asked him to write up his findings here, you can also listen to the podcast:
After seeing a strong 5-Year CAGR of +28% through 2015, the 3D printer market began to sputter a bit at the end of 2015 with woes continuing into 2016. CONTEXT data revealed a +15% growth in total shipments through the first half of 2016, but ironically with the personal/desktop category massively outperforming the industrial/professional segment making it even more clear that the industry is beginning to shake out into two distinct markets.
Personal vs. Industrial
Figure 1
Figure 1: Top 5 Vendor 3D Printer Market Share by Unit Volumes, Global Desktop/Personal Printers, 1H’16
Industry leaders Stratasys and 3D Systems scaled back their efforts in the desktop 3D Printer space in 2015 but this market continues to grow none-the-less, seeing a +15% growth in shipments in 1H’16. XYZprinting remained the global leader in this segment, with a 19% share of the market in the first half of the year, while Ultimaker, M3D and Flashforge all grew in the top five.
When it comes to professional 3D printing, this side of the market saw -15% fewer printers ship in 1H’16 compared to a year ago. While Stratasys and 3D Systems remained tops in market share, both saw year-on-year shipment declines and each continued to overhaul management structures and realign strategies in the first six months. And while mindshare appears to be swinging to the likes of HP, Carbon and metal 3D printer makers, the two showcased new technologies, which they anticipate will keep them on top.
Most of the decline in the professional came by way of the plastics side of the market, with metal-based solutions continuing to shine, with +17% more units shipped in the period than the same time last year. And because of the relatively high price points of these printers, this growth helped the segment record a +3% year-on-year growth in revenues despite that significant shipment decline. The market also got a shot in the arm when GE announced plans to acquire the #2 (SLM Solutions) and the #4 (Arcam AB) metal 3D Printer companies to form an entirely new business to sell printers (as well as to produce printers for its own use). (ed. this article was written before GE announced plans to purchase Concept Laser.)
Figure 2
Figure 2: Top 5 Vendor 3D Printer Market Share by Printer Revenue, Global Industrial/Professional Printers, 1H’16
Desktop success to continue
Listen to the podcast
As for the next six months, the desktop market remains bullish, being on track for an eventual +35% year-on-year growth. That’s despite Mattel cancelling plans to revive the ThingMaker brand through the shipment of a $299 3D printer in 2016. Market leader XYZprinting looks set to offer a handful of printers under $300 and plenty of crowdsourced pre-orders are still due to ship in this calendar year.
On the industrial/professional side there’s unlikely to be any major growth in shipments, with HP yet to ship and other newcomers like Carbon and Ricoh still being new to the industry. What we are likely to see in the longer term, however, is the plastics side of the market start to shift focus to end-part production next year and beyond, following the lead of the metal 3D printer segment which has already made this transition. Then the market will really start to accelerate.
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